Mkts set for exit poll boost today

On the counting day on Tuesday, trends will be out in time for the opening bell to react. Markets know no politics, but they are guided by the political developments and this week by the election results

With almost all the exit polls forecasting a hat-trick for PM Narendra Modi, the stock markets are expected to open on a bumper note on Monday. But will the euphoria last till Tuesday and beyond?

Punters will bet with a no-holds barred approach and book quick profits by the end of the session on a cautious note. Market observers say the gamble requires an element of caution as there could be surprises in stock (pun intended) for Tuesday when the counting of votes for the Lok Sabha poll will happen. Trends will be out in time for the opening bell to react on the counting day.

The history of exit polls has not been highly credible. While the BJP camp is jubilant, hoping for Char-Sau-Paar performance in actual counting, the Congress and INDI bloc dismiss the exit poll as a manipulated exercise to play for the markets.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is hopeful of bidding goodbye to PM Modi, whereas the BJP top leader exuded confidence fresh from his 45-hour long meditation at Swami Vivekananda rock memorial.

Markets know no politics, but they are guided by the political developments and this week by the election results. Either way, much as the politicians, market operators are in for surprises and shocks.

The bull graph will just zoom in case the NDA retains power and will take time to adjust if INDIA manages to dethrone Modi. The markets will cautiously watch the policy outcome from the mix of Centre and left-of-centre political ideologies of INDI block constituents – that is if the opposition turns into the ruling alliance.

Last week, markets witnessed a profit booking after strong breakout from last week ahead of general election results, said Mahavir Lunawat, Managing Director, Pantomath Capital Advisors Pvt Ltd. He expected volatility in the market in the short-term ahead of election results and surge in the US 10 year treasury yields.

Among the positives for the markets, according to Lunawat are, the rise in industrial activity and fixed investment on the back of elevated government capital spending.

Amid all this talk, speciality fine chemicals maker Kronox Lab Sciences has mustered courage to float its IPO on Monday at a price band of Rs129-Rs136 apiece. Lunawat says the primary market will witness a renewed vigour, post June 4.

For retail investors, the advice is not to get too emotional, but stay cool and take a deep breath. It matters!